Owatonna, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

367
FXUS63 KMPX 180506
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Arctic front moves through today, bringing colder temperatures and
  scattered snow showers this afternoon and evening.

- Northwest winds gusting to 40 to 50mph possible through early
  evening across west central and south central MN.

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills from Saturday
  evening through Tuesday morning.

- No significant precipitation chances expected over at least  the
  next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The coldest air of the season is forecast to arrive this weekend
across the Upper Midwest. The good news is our lack of snow
cover will limit how cold it will get but it will still get
dangerously cold over the next several days. Current
observations reveal a potent cold front stretching across the
Upper Midwest. There is a tail of two seasons bisecting
Minnesota into two. A wintry wallop with gusty northwest winds
and plummeting temperatures for those locations behind the cold
front while locations ahead of it are holding onto the January
thaw as long as they can. The Arctic front quickly moves through
the remainder of the Upper Midwest this evening and will usher
in the coldest air mass of the season so far. That means our
temperatures will continue to fall over next 36 to 48 hours so
enjoy the "warmth" while you can. Isolated to scattered snow
showers will be possible for a few hours this evening as the
frontal boundary moves through. These could lead to a brief
burst of moderate snow. This could lead to very isolated travel
impacts under the heavier showers. We`ll dry out tonight and
that`ll end our snow chances for the remainder of the period.

On Saturday, temperatures will drop into the single digits
tonight before stagnating in the afternoon hours. Temperatures
resume falling Saturday evening before bottoming out in the
teens below zero early Sunday morning. Wind chill temperatures
will hit Cold Weather Advisory levels Saturday evening and stick
there through Tuesday morning. Forecast confidence is high that
we`ll see apparent temperatures (wind chills) in the -20 and
-30s below zero. There is less confidence on how much colder
 they could get and that uncertainty played into our cold
 weather headlines. This is also a reminder that Extreme Cold
 Watch/Warnings & Cold Weather Advisories have replaced Wind
 Chill Watch/Warnings/Advisories!

Headlines: We`ve opted for an area-wide Cold weather Advisory
Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon as wind chill
temperatures hit that -25 to -35F range. This Cold Weather
Advisory will transition to an Extreme Cold Warning in
Swift/Stevens/Pope/Douglas/Todd/Morrison counties in west-
central Minnesota. Wind chill values will range from -40 to -45F
below zero Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a
Cold Weather Advisory will remain in effect through Tuesday
morning for wind chill temperatures in the -25 to -40 range.

It`s important to note some locations are forecast to be at or
below zero from Saturday afternoon until noon Tuesday. This
will place vulnerable populations at a greater risk given the
compounding impacts similarly to excessive heat waves as there
will be no relief from the frigid cold temperatures. By
Wednesday, we will begin to bounce back with our high
temperatures returning in the lower 20s, with temperatures back
near normal for the second half of next week. For precipitation,
chances look minimal given the dry nature of the Arctic airmass
in place, but we are seeing signs of a clipper moving though on
Wednesday that could bring another round of light snow
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Any snow accumulations would be
very minor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A mix of upper-range MVFR and lower VFR ceilings will prevail
through much of the overnight hours, with skies then clearing
out during the day tomorrow to just passing high cirrus clouds.
There`s another likelihood of a 4-6 hour period of MVFR
ceilings late afternoon into early evening. Strong NW winds will
prevail throughout this duration, with speeds around 25G35kts
in western MN to 20G30kts in eastern MN into western WI through
the first half of Saturday before speeds diminish slightly.

KMSP...A period of MVFR ceilings is possible overnight, not
below 2000ft, but VFR ceilings are more likely. VFR conditions
will then prevail during the daylight hours but another round of
MVFR ceilings looks likely late afternoon through the evening
hours, then VFR expected Saturday night as cloud cover lessens.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST
     Sunday night for Douglas-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST
     Tuesday for Douglas-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday
     for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-
     Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to noon CST Tuesday
     for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-
     Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC